This was very close to being a max rated POD, but at 4 out of 5 on my confidence rating it's my second biggest play of the week. The Big Ten has also been my best conference to handicap and I am confident in this match up between Maryland and Penn State. The pick is backed by a full in depth analysis and I am 60% ATS on the season on 4.4% rated plays!


I really like the Terps here, and their hire of DJ Durkin. Durkin the defensive coordinator for Michigan last year and previously Florida has coached up a lot of very good defenses. This is quickly becoming a rivalry now that Maryland is in the Big Ten. The last two meetings over the last two seasons have been decided by 1 point. Maryland was clearly the better team, but lost last year due to 5 turnovers. Maryland and all the coaches on both sides are saying this is not a rivalry game, but Maryland didn’t even shake the hands of Penn State players last year during the coin toss. That should tell you everything you need to know in this border rivalry.

I don’t want to get carried away when you look at their schedule it has been really weak to start the season compared with Penn State. However, Penn State has been decimated with injuries at the linebacker spot and they have really struggled to stop the run which does not set up well in this game with Maryland who comes into this game ranking 4th in the nation in yards per carry. Penn State’s defense lost 3 linebackers and has Brandon Bell questionable for this game. They are already thin at linebacker and it’s a big reason why they rank 91st in run defense. They have already allowed 300+ yards rushing in two games. And 4 of their 5 opponents have exceeded their season average in yards per carry against them.

Maryland obviously has done it against a weak run defensive schedule with the exception of Central Florida. Central Florida really good ranking 14th in yards per carry and Maryland was able to average 4.96 with over 200 yards combined. UCF’s rank is not smoke in mirrors they went on the road and held Michigan to 2.90 yards per carry. Michigan averaged over 1.75 yards per carry over their season average against Penn State. These are all key factors when you consider Maryland runs the ball 66% of the time under Durkin.

Defensively I really like Maryland in this game as they have been good against the run. They held Saquan Barkley to 65 yards last year and he has struggled this year. Barkley was the key to this offense, and he really has not played well. The other thing to consider is the fact that Maryland is also getting to the QB over 9% of drop backs. Penn State has already turned the ball over 10 times while Maryland has turned it over just 2. Which was a huge reason why they lost this game last year as they had 5 turnovers. Expect Maryland to play a better game under Durkin. Penn State also has Ohio State on deck.

Where to find Freddy?